What is Survivorship Bias
Survivorship Bias: A cognitive shortcut where we mistakenly view a successful subgroup as the entire group.
The most well known example of survivorship bias comes from analysis of military aircraft that returned from combat missions during World War II. A study of the returning planes showed heavy damage to wings, tail, and center mass of the plane resulting in designs for planes with more armor in these areas.
Thankfully, Abraham Wald from Columbia University was brought in to study the problem, and he asked one simple question.
What about the planes that didn’t come back?
The reality was, damage to the wings, tail, and center mass of a plane was survivable. Those planes made it back. It was damage to the engines and cockpit that resulted in a lost plane and, more importantly, crew.
In the pursuit of success, it's easy to focus only on the successes while ignoring the failures (big and small) that lurk beneath the surface. This bias can lead to misguided decisions, missed opportunities, and a distorted view of reality. As leaders, it's crucial to recognize and mitigate survivorship bias to ensure our organizations continuously learn and improve.
1. Broaden Your Perspective:
Resist the temptation to cherry-pick success stories and instead seek out a diverse range of perspectives and experiences. Actively seek feedback from all stakeholders, including those who have faced setbacks or challenges. By widening your scope, you gain a more holistic understanding of your organization's strengths and weaknesses.
2. Conduct Regular Retrospectives:
Implement a structured process for analyzing both successes and failures as often as every other week. Conduct retrospective reviews to dissect past work, identifying key lessons learned and areas for improvement. Encourage open dialogue and reflection, creating a culture that values continuous learning and growth.
3. Embrace Failure as a Learning Opportunity:
Shift your mindset towards failure as a natural part of the journey to success. Encourage experimentation and risk-taking within your organization, celebrating both wins and losses as valuable learning experiences. By reframing failure as a stepping-stone to growth, you empower your team to innovate and adapt in the face of adversity.
4. Seek Out Contrarian Views:
Surround yourself with diverse perspectives and voices, including those that challenge your assumptions and beliefs. Actively seek out dissenting opinions and encourage constructive debate within your team. By inviting alternative viewpoints, you guard against groupthink and foster a culture of critical thinking and innovation.
5. Invest in Continuous Improvement:
Cultivate a culture of continuous improvement where feedback is welcomed, and processes are regularly evaluated and refined. Encourage your team to experiment, iterate, and evolve their approaches based on data and insights. By fostering a culture of adaptability and resilience, you position your organization for sustained success in an ever-changing landscape.
Bonus Tactic: Conduct Pre-mortems!
Why does this work? People are surprisingly good at imagining the future in scenarios like this , especially in shorter time frames of 2-8 weeks, but even in longer time frames for work with which they are familiar.
As leaders, it's our responsibility to remain vigilant against survivorship bias and ensure our decision-making is grounded in reality rather than illusion. By embracing a mindset of continuous learning and growth, we can navigate challenges with clarity and resilience, guiding our organizations to new heights of success.
Thank you again for your support and we want to express our heartfelt gratitude for being a part of this journey. We hope the articles and tips shared have inspired and empowered you to lead with purpose, resilience, and authenticity.
Remember, leadership is not just about the title you hold; it's about the impact you make and the lives you touch. So, as you go forth into your week, continue to lead with intention, compassion, and vision. Together, let's create a world where every leader is centered, empowered, and ready to make a difference.